Ok -- going out on a limb time.
My still standing most dramatic comment on technology is still in the works, and that is the one back in 1999 when I said that Microsoft would be decimated in 10 years.
Trends showing that are the constant delay of Vista, the impending over-run of Macs and the decentralization of equipment.
Now for my next dramatic comment:
Web 2.0 is already dead
Here's why.
First, the social phenomenon is one that is driven towards connection and person-to-person. What's lighting up Web 2.0 is not a measure of how great the Web is for getting people together, but how desperate people are to feel connected in an otherwise silent, lonely, and text heavy medium.
Web 2.0 isn't a commentary on how great the Internet is going to be for bringing people together, it's a commentary for how lousy it HAS been to date in getting people together.
Congratulations, people, you've discovered that human beings are social animals. A person alone is a bad thing, yes, just look at the drama of the movie "Castaway", it was the loneliness that gave it tension -- we are born seeking connection with each other. Duh.
So, for years, we've been using technology that essentially disconnects us, keeps us hidden behind emails and text messages. We've been so desperate for connection that we, as a society, invented smiley faces ;)
So Web 2.0 isn't the new revolution, it's just a relief from the original isolating process.
A long time ago, I pointed out that all technology is moving towards one situation -- constant, freeform, face-to-face interpersonal contact anywhere at any time. That's what we want. We want to be able to pick up the doohickey, push a button and not only "chat at" a friend, or send a picture, but actually be with him her, see his/her body language, interact, touch, feel, smell, and be with that other person.
So what's gonna happen? A few decent technologies will bubble to the surface, no major killers ... just a few websites that do some stuff -- more along the lines of an Ebay than a new IM or email application... and then it will drift off and be crushed by what's really coming.
What's really coming, you ask?
Video.
When the technology to put video up without delay or hiccup is in place, with qualities rivaling cable TV, you can kiss the web goodbye.
When you can pick the doohickey up and see the baby's first steps, chat in real time with your friend in Europe and/or store an experience easily for later viewing (and listening) ... the web will fall into the same hole that ate BBSs and Gopher.
Web 2.0. That's cute. You people really need to get a job.
