Security is defined by the capacity to avoid unpleasant surprises -- when we say, "I feel secure" it is truly saying, "My sense of the probability of unwanted surprises is low."
Those we consider leaders, people to follow are those who are capable of avoiding unpleasant surprises (by foreseeing them and removing the surprise), and are also capable of overcoming unpleasant surprises (by meeting them with greater force and ability to contain or remove the unpleasantness).
Those who work well in a team are those that watch for unpleasant surprise and bring it to the team's awareness before it arrives -- thus removing the surprise.
The flip side of this is the opportunity, or "wanted surprise." Good leaders will be able to recognize opportunities as they arise, and capture them before they get away. Additionally, good leaders will be able to apply greater force and ability to benefit from the opportunities as they arise.
Those who make a good team will be able to respond quickly to the opportunities, bringing them "into the boat" with speed in order to secure them and avoid the unwanted surprise of missed opportunity.
]]>The integration of presentation and operation as a means of delivering better functionality.
Designers make nifty buttons and pictures that look great, but are hard to use.
Coders make programs that require the user to remember obscure facts about the system.
Hardware manufacturers design equipment that have no universal standards.
Good technology uses the arrangement (design) of program elements (code) and physical parts (hardware) to extend the user's ability with the least amount of stress on the user.
]]>Helvetica holds my ideas
when it is
not there
you are empty.
Solitude, in fact is the only thing that can exist within us, save belief. In belief we find that we call out to that which we do not know, but hold to be evident. In belief we hold outside of ourselves those facts that matter to our own existence as we see it, and in fact instill in those things we believe, our own selves.
Yet, the error in ourselves can be, but not always is, to believe that what we hold outside ourselves is in some way created or manifest by us rather than beheld and apprehended around us.
As you behold those things internally that are at the same time external to yourself, and that you do consider the Truth -- remember that these things, made real outside of your own mortality, must stand of their own accord and be capable of instructing and changing you -- not merely to sit idolatrously idle and be fed by our own will that they exist. Each thing that is not manifest in your mind from your own will must, in its essence, stand apart from you and teach you according to its own nature.
To apprehend that which is around you, in which you can place belief, and recognize that those things are beyond your own will to create, and outside of your own mind to shape through belief, is to apprehend a Truth that stands apart from you and wills to affect you.
The things around you that receive your belief are not to be swayed by what you choose for them, but in fact will sway you more greatly -- and in that, we find the nature of our own error -- that by believing in the unswaying nature of Truth, we in some way surrender the power of our own selves, and perhaps through that conflict, enter into our own mortality. But I assure you, that the only connection we have to the infinite is through these very same channels of belief; channels that will allow us to subjugate our own will to that which we believe is immortally eternal.
Since, in our own nature, we know that of our own accord we cannot be immortal, or at least in right reason accept the message of those around us that tend to confirm our on mortality -- we must seek to recognize that, if immortality exists -- it exists beyond us, beyond our person, beyond our eternal.
As a Christian, I deliver to you, into your internal mind, the promise told to me -- that through belief, the Truly Eternal Body of Christ is available to all who seek it -- that beyond our capacity to understand or overcome our own mortality -- there is something which can be believed upon, but does not rely upon our belief for existence. This immortal Truth is made by way of Faith -- and that Faith is the belief in that which we do not see, and the hope for things to come.
"So we fix our eyes not on what is seen, but on what is unseen. For what is seen is temporary, but what is unseen is eternal."
(2Corinthians 4:18 NIV)
In short, if you read my words, you believe that I am, but my words to you are from me to you, not made manifest by your capacity to believe in me. If so much the way from mortal man, how much more from God Himself?
]]>My female might be missing.
I was laying by the fire that HE had made for me, warming my muscles against the chill of the cold season, staying limber by staying still; when HE started making it dark everywhere. Every night, HE walks through the family den, chamber to chamber, and makes it go dark. HE does this to prepare the world for my destruction -- I hunt best in total darkness.
HE goes up to where his kittens rest (they are getting larger now, should be hunting by now, in my opinion) and speaks over them. HE does this ritual every night, usually laying his hand on my head as I settle in the young male's nest, reassuring HIM that I will watch out for danger.
But tonight, HE was unsettled. HE did not turn the light to darkness, HE began turning the darkness to light! HE shouted for my female over and over. HE made
]]>Tonight, one of our cats, the female, Scout -- went missing.
I only noticed it right before I went to bed, 2:30am -- high hunting season for those creatures. It was not a good time to realize that she was missing.
I wandered around the house, I checked the kids beds again (and again), then I got a flashlight -- I'd go outside and shout for her. Sometimes, at our old house, my shouting would cue the cats to come bolting towards the house, out from under whatever bush or tree they were hiding, ears back, eyes wide -- running for their lives from the coyotes that used to live there. I figured a good shout would bring her home here just as well as it did back then.
Standing outside, I shouted her name. I did it a few times, with pauses, to try and communicate that I was still there -- that she could make a break for it. But nothing happened. I stood in the dark, beginning to unpack the bad ideas, the ones that you first try on with a skeptical mind to get ready.
I shouted some more -- then went inside. That's when I had a moment with my cat.
Boo, the male cat, looked at me with big eyes and immediately wanted to go outside.
At first, I was annoyed. "No, Boo, you are not going outside -- no way!"
I went to another door of the house and shouted, and he made a break for it.
Aaargh -- I thought ... great. Then I decided I was too bored and annoyed to care anymore -- if these cats wanted to go out and have this sort of trouble -- then ... no, no -- I did care.
So I went to another door, shouted some more, and headed outside again.
That's when Boo rolled up on the door, saw me, and gave me that stare. It's the "yes, idiot, we do know what's going on, there is a universal understanding between all the creatures in the universe, and you have to follow me right now" stare.
So, of course, I followed him. He ran off around the house. I followed. I figured as soon as I came around the corner, I'd startle him and I'd break out of my little fantasy, he's just a cat, and there had been no moment.
But he was waiting for me when I turned the corner, looking over his shoulder, and waiting.
"What is it, Boo? Where is she?"
He looked around in one area, sniffed a bit, as if maybe that made some sort of obvious sense to me; but of course I'm just a stupid hairless ape with no nose power -- so I was clueless.
He wasn't going to be deterred in the least -- he immediately turned and headed back the way we came. With intent. So I followed.
We came around the back of the house, and he considered going inside the door I'd left open. We went in for a second, but then I looked at him and gave him the stare right back -- "No, I'm gonna keep looking.", I said with my body and eyes.
So he turned around and walked right back out, rolled up next to me... we were a team -- the men of the house ... we're gonna find this cat.
I had the flashlight on, and we headed through the wooded alley behind our house, towards the back yard, he was never more than three feet from me, pacing me, checking corners, roaming out to the side, but not doing that standard "co-wander" thing cats do -- he was with me on this.
Just as we got to the back yard, I heard a mighty rustling, something big was running away from me. Could have been a raccoon, doubtful it was coyotes -- they sing too much. But this thing was big, it was crashing through the bush, and Boo had known it was there the whole time.
He'd actually intentionally lead me to it. Against his own better safety. In response to my shouting for Scout. He knew, he knew what to do, and he did it.
As we'd passed the door, he thought twice about going with me, but then decided to come with me -- and, knowing there was a monster in the back yard, he paced me anyway and we flushed this thing out together.
Then we were standing together in the back yard, me and my cat, owning that space, checking the corners with the flashlight, and sort of awkwardly pretending to each other that we hadn't just broken the sacred human/animal language barrier.
He checked some other places, never more than a few feet from me, never jumpy, never needy, never startled -- a co-searcher ... and then he basically suggested we head back to the front door of the house, since we'd done a full circuit and removed the danger -- which is why he'd directed me there. He knew she'd be safer now, now that he'd gotten me to scare the monster away -- a monster I couldn't see, only heard -- but he knew all about.
I looked around, shouted for Scout a few more times, and followed him to the door. We headed into the house. No meows at the door, no pacing to be let in -- we knew what we'd done, and it was time to get back inside. I opened the door, and he walked in with me.
I went to the food area and threw him a handful of dry kibble to say thanks... he seemed to appreciate that... now we'd wait -- he seemed strangely unperturbed after all that.
I did one more tour of the house, then went and closed the door I'd left open near the alley. I noticed that the motion-sensor light was still on, so I shouted once more.
A few minutes later, Scout appeared out of nowhere in the dining room.
Boo seemed to think that was good enough. I pet her for a minute or two, he sat and watched. I think we'll likely all go back to pretending we don't understand each other. But it was nice to have that moment with my 10 year old friend.
]]>You take your money, put it in a bank, they make a record of it -- based on the trust that they are accurate -- you have credit to purchase things up to the amount you have stored in the bank.
If they bank believes in you, it offers you money from the future of your life so you can buy bigger things now. That's what you think of as credit, but is just monetization of your existing credit bearing ability.
Now, if you take money from you in the future, it's a pretty dumb thing to spend it on things that don't retain value. Like just about everything in your house, your car, and everything you consume. If you're robbing yourself from the future to buy things that don't retain value -- you're basically making yourself poor in the future.
See -- you can't make more than you're going to make in your life -- that's the limit. Everything you will ever make is what you'll make. So, if you take $1,000 from next year and eat it now, next year, you'll be $1,000 behind.
PLUS, you'll have to pay the people who pulled that time warp for you -- that's interest. So, not only have you taken that money from you in the future, you're also taking money from you again to pay the people who lend you that future funding.
So what can you put your money INTO? There's only one thing you should put your money in -- PAY ATTENTION ...
Things that retain value. That's it. Everything else is noise.
What kinds of things retain value?
A house, for the most part, even with this crisis, retains value or will recover value after the crisis is over.
Real estate, raw dirt of the Earth itself -- retains value.
Stocks in stable companies retain value.
But how, Malcolm, do I find stocks in stable companies? Well, that's the trick isn't it?
Squint into the future -- what companies will most likely still be here? Coke? IBM? Google? Who knows -- that's up to you ... but when you put your money in those things that retain value ... you don't lose it.
The trick is to find those. Not big mondo super stocks that will grow and make you rich -- just ones that won't tank.
...oh, and btw -- stop taking money from your future -- leave it there -- you'll need it.
]]>But when the Fonz stood in California surrounded by beach, preparing to jump the shark ... it was the beginning of the end... an end so great that we all know it now as the term for turning the cool up so loud that everyone suddenly realizes you're just Henry Winkler on water skis.
I'm looking at Apple these days and frankly I'm tripping out a little.
We have the cool guy in the black turtleneck ... surrounded by iPhones, iPods, genius bars and petulantly computer literate kids selling his stuff -- and he goes and decides to go for broke.
He slaps the Macbook line on one foot, the Macbook Pro line on the other, grabs a rope behind Richie driving the Macbook Air speedboat and goes for broke to jump the dangerous economic disaster -- because he's the Fonz ... he can do it.
But you know what? Even if these new machines sell -- they're ugly as hell and basically just suck.
Apple's taken a beautiful set of monochromatically tuned computers and turned them all into a single set of black on silver garbage blocks of solid aluminum -- with the only seeming saving grace being that the MBP has dual video engines in it.
That's it.
As a constant buyer of Apple hardware -- I'm annoyed to the point of walkaway that they'd opt to radically veer from their successful lines and try this arrogant garbage.
The new lines are ugly. They are mandatorily glossy screen (goodbye, working under flourescent lights, the sun, near windows), and taken AWAY their signature statement -- so easy we only have one button.
Instead, they have "no button" ... oh wait ... yes there IS a button -- it's just been swept under the rug of a flat trackpad ... it's not even tap -- it's an actual clicking button without edges or physical features of any kind. Ooooh, that's impressive ... almost like making ALL the doors on a line of cars without handles. Sure is sexy, until you try to use it.
Pathetic.
Dear Apple -- please don't jump the shark -- we're all sorry ... we'll go back to buying more stuff -- please stop listening to whatever new division or division head has drawn you down this almost Microsoft-ian tone-deaf line of design.
]]>The following is an explanation of what's happening for intelligent people who don't track this stuff -- in the form of an analogy:
There's a fictional town called "Carville", where the majority of people sell new and used cars. All the outlying towns come to Carville to buy cars, because the market is great for cars there -- since that's where everyone's selling their used cars.
Between 2002 and 2007, the five largest car dealers, Al's Autos, Bob's Beauties, Charlie's Cars, Diane's Diesels, and Eddie's Engines, were going gangbusters. They were expanding their inventory, buying up used cars left and right, and even loading a lot of these cars into trucks and selling them in lots to smaller car dealers; that was standard procedure -- the smaller dealers would buy these lots from the ABC dealers (that's what they were called) and the smaller dealers would turn around and sell these "wholesale" cars at higher prices.
Now the Carville town government had a requirement of all sellers. You could only sell cars if you kept at least 1 new car, or equivalent, per 100 used cars. The "or equivalent" was a rule our little town's mayor made that said any car worth $15,000 or more was considered a new car equivalent.
Based on that, the ABC dealers always kept a portion of their cars as new and equivalents, so that they could sell all those cheap used cars that were moving like hotcakes. The dealers even sold car lots to each other based on this sort of new car requirement -- so sometimes, overnight, Al would call Diane and say "Diane, I'm short two new cars for what I have on hand, will you sell me a pair of new cars at wholesale?", and she'd agree -- since Al had 98 new cars in hand for the 10,000 used cars he was holding. She'd charge him a small fee, and everyone's happy -- no problem there, standard business.
Now, someone realized that if you took apart 10 used cars and put the nicest pieces back together again, you'd end up with an "equivalent to new" car -- one that could be counted as part of your new car requirement. So the ABC dealers, since they had the most cars, started chopping used cars as they came in and making these higher value "equivalent to new" cars -- which was cheaper than buying actual new cars -- how great is that?!
Before you know it, they're not only making these "chopped new" cars for themselves, they're selling them to each other for equivalency headcounts as well, and selling them to smaller dealers as well -- there's a whole new kind of car here, and frankly since the value of a chopped new is so much higher than the pieces it's made out of, the ABC dealers were focusing on chopped new cars a great deal.
For five years, it's a wild ride. They realize that they can go after cheaper and cheaper used cars, chop them into just barely equivalent cars, and actually create MASSIVE inventories of new or equivalent cars, so they can go out and get tremendous amounts of used cars -- just vast lots -- Al went from 10,000 used cars and 100 new cars to 200,000 used cars and 2000 (!) "chopped new" cars. He was buying and selling car lots to folks as far away as Indiana -- making money hand over fist ... and nobody ever expected it to end -- because it wasn't some bubble, it was just a great way of doing business.
Then one day, there was a car accident -- and one of the drivers was driving a chopped new car. In the accident, the chopped new broke into pieces and the driver was severely injured. People at first didn't notice, until more chopped new cars started breaking apart in car accidents. See, chopped new cars were great for regular use, but they actually were terrible in a crisis -- they collapsed like a cardboard car, and people were getting hurt badly.
All of the sudden, nobody wants to buy chopped new cars. They're dangerous, they go bad at the worst possible moment and can't survive a crash. So the chopped new cars lost their value. Well ... that meant they were no longer equivalent to a new car -- heck, they weren't even equivalent to a used car. They were rolling junk, worth nothing.
So on a dark Monday morning, the ABC dealers went out and looked at their vast fields of cars, and realized they had a major problem. They had massive counts of used cars (remember Al's 200,000 used cars?) and only a handful of new or equivalent cars. So first, they called each other.
Al called Diane and asked if she had any new cars she could sell him at wholesale -- she replied that she was just about to call him and ask the same thing ... or would he like to buy a few lots of used cars so she can drum up the money needed to get the new cars she needed? Well, nobody had enough new cars. In fact, all of Carville had maybe 150 real new cars and close to 1,000,000 used cars on hand. Nobody was going to be able to afford the tens of thousands of new cars needed to keep Carville alive. Now what?
So -- here's the analogy explained:
* Carville is the Financial Industry
* Each of the ABC dealers is a major Investment Bank (Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch)
* The new car or new car equivalents is "Assets on Hand" -- this is a requirement that the Government and lenders have for how much money you must have on hand before you can lend, or borrow money. Clearly, when you go to get a loan, the bank asks you what you have for collateral -- but what you may not know is that the Government won't let banks lend money unless they have a certain amount in cash or cash equivalents -- assets. These restrictions are lower for Investment banks -- but "regular" (or commercial) banks have very strict requirements for how much cash on hand they must hold. (See Reserve Requirements explained for more details)
* The used cars is the loans and other MONEY MAKING methods all these banks and Investment houses had out there. It's the equivalent of how many things in your house you've bought on credit vs. with cash. Imagine if most of your entire home is bought on credit (if that's the case, stop reading and fix that now) -- that's how "leveraged" the banks got. Well, that's how leveraged they tend to be in general -- but in this case the "ABC dealers" were basing it on these crazy "chopped new" cars ... which are...
* The "Chop New" cars are the CDOs (See Collateralized Debt Obligations for more details) that the Financial Industry ("Carville") was slinging around as if they were real assets ("new car equivalents"). The CDOs basically are an armful of debt - and the big monster in this case is consumer debt, in the form of crazy sub-prime mortgages (Mortgage Backed Securities aka MBSs) wrapped up with a bow and treated basically like money. That's great, until we start seeing...
* The car crashes are when individuals started defaulting on their consumer debt. These defaults were getting more frequent -- which forced the Financial Industry to review the MBSs and realize that these MBS "chopped new" cars fell apart in a financial crisis -- individuals with low credit ratings had been scooping up vast amounts of debt, being put into these CDO/MBS securities -- which were then sold to the major banks. When all the bad consumer debtors started defaulting on their crazy loans (those "half-caff with a twist" super sub prime ARM cheater mortgages that sane people avoided), those individual loans made the CDOs that had them bundled, into garbage. All of the sudden...
*The major investment firms realized they had massive amounts of loans out there, and their assets were next to nothing -- they had no capital, they couldn't match Reserve Requirements (where applicable) -- and all they had were giant piles of these useless CDO/MBSs filled with defaulting debt.
So what happened?
Well, to date of this post -- the mayor and government of Carville realized they had to buy all these "chopped new" cars from the dealers, or all of Carville would fall. The hope is that the Mayor's people can fix the chopped new cars, or at least hold them long enough for the good ones to be worth something again.
"But that's going to cost the town $700 Billion", someone shouted.
"Well,", said the Mayor's banker, "if we don't do something, there won't be any more cars to sell, and frankly, without cars, nobody can drive, and if you can't drive, the farmers can't sell their goods, people can't get to the store, and the whole sky will fall. Folks will be trapped on their own farms, living off the land. We gotta do something."
...and where it stands right now is that the Mayor, his banker, and the town elders are all sitting down to figure out how to get this money available to the car dealers so they can get back to selling cars, and unwind this mess.
What happened to the ABC dealers?
* Lehman Brothers (let's say that's Al), failed. They've filed bankruptcy protection (they're not closed, they're just saying they can't pay any of their creditors and need protection until they recover, you'll see them again)
* Merrill Lynch (Diane) found a neighbor, who never got a big piece of the "chopped new" business. See, that neighbor is a truck dealership -- and they're required to have many more new trucks per used truck (let's say 10 new trucks per 100 used trucks vs. 1 new car per 100 used cars). Since they have stricter requirements, they were less exposed, and tended to act more conservatively (usually). Coincidentally, since they're kept in a more strict position and act more conservatively, the town of Carville lends them money at a lower cost (The Federal Reserve System). These are the "real" commercial banks. That neighbor bought her for almost nothing. That neighbor is Bank of America
* Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley (Bob and Charlie), went to the mayor and said they'd like to become truck dealers -- primarily in the hopes of getting their hands on that cheaper Carville town lending that truck dealers get. That's helping, but not a given solution. "Old Jack", the smartest man in Carville, sauntered in from his ten million acre ranch and told Bob he'd give Bob some of the money he needed if Old Jack could have a whole bunch of things from Bob (including a 10% dividend, which pays essentially $1.3 million a day). Of course, "Old Jack" is Warren Buffett -- what a great dealer :)
* Bear Stearns (Eddie) died early and was sold to JP Morgan months ago (not to be confused with Morgan Stanley)
But the saga continues -- as the Mayor and his people determine how to deal with this -- Washington Mutual, a "truck dealer" found itself so massively extended in these CDO/MBSs, that they couldn't meet the strict requirements, and the Government seized them and sold them ALSO to JP Morgan
What does the future hold? It's gonna be more expensive to buy a used car for a while (get a loan), because everybody's gotta make money and the prices will go up -- and if the Government does nothing, Carville will go bust and we're all living in our farms alone. How's your farm?
Your Farm:
Your farm is your personal financial status. You should be primarily as debt free as you can be -- your mortgage, if you have one, should be very traditional and the lowest rate you can have -- get out of your credit card debt, period.
Another thing about all of this is where it can get worse. See, there's a LOT of Credit Card debt out there -- and it could make things worse. If consumers are defaulting on their mortgages, then they're also going to default on their Credit Card debt. That's going to create ANOTHER burden on the banks, and make the heavy lifting even heavier.
HOW YOU CAN HELP: DECREASE YOUR CREDIT CARD DEBT
How much credit card debt should you have? (None, but...) If the cash you have can't pay the debt you carry, you've got too much. Stop investing, stop buying, pay off your cards now -- it's how we got here. You want responsibility? Yes, the ABC dealers are responsible, but the extreme credit card debt of consumers is the cause.
To do that is going to take an emotional shift. When you look at your flat screen TV, enjoy it -- don't then look at mine and say "Well, his is bigger, I need a bigger one too." -- stop looking at your neighbors and comparing; just look at yourself and be happy, in other words -- live off the land on your own farm, live within your means.
Bottom line? $10,000 cash is better than $20,000 and $10,000 in debt -- for you, your farm, and our country.
]]>But the annual revenue of every society is always precisely equal to the exchangeable value of the whole annual produce of its industry, or rather is precisely the same thing with that exchangeable value. As every individual, therefore, endeavors as much he can both to employ his capital in the support of domestic industry, and so to direct that industry that its produce may be of the greatest value; every individual necessarily labors to render the annual revenue of the society as great as he can. He generally, indeed, neither intends to promote the public interest, nor knows how much he is promoting it. By preferring the support of domestic to that of foreign industry, he intends only his own security; and by directing that industry in such a manner as its produce may be of the greatest value, he intends only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention. Nor is it always the worse for the society that it was not part of it. By pursuing his own interest he frequently promotes that of the society more effectually than when he really intends to promote it. I have never known much good done by those who affected to trade for the public good. It is an affectation, indeed, not very common among merchants, and very few words need be employed in dissuading them from it.
Adam Smith - The Wealth of Nations
Smith's primary point is that when people work for their own interest in a fair, open market, they contribute to the overall good of society in the process, not through their own cooperation with others towards that overall good -- but by virtue of the economic process, the good comes about as if by virtue of an "Invisible Hand" guiding things.
In modern "short speak", if you look out for yourself, that's gonna help everyone.
Well, there are a few huge problems with that notion -- not operationally, but philosophically ... problems that don't go into maudlin morality or any other such notion -- but simply outline that the Invisible Hand requires what I call transparency.
In the movie Wall Street, the character Gordon Gecko says the famous line "Greed is good."
As any novice investor or trader will tell you, greed and fear are the enemy when it comes to managing your portfolio -- they cause you to make emotional decisions that undermine your overall return. So, in essence, (as we all know from our 2nd Grade Teachers), Greed actually is not good.
But what happens when a society, having been educated to the very valid concepts of competitive advantage, and even Ricardo's comparative advantage -- get it wrong and begin to equate Greed with self interest?
What happens if, after reading two paragraph synopses of Smith's ideas, an entire community, like the Investment Community, gets it in their heads that Smith has created some sort of license to be a jerk, and cheat the next guy -- since the process of looking out for yourself makes all nasty maneuvers justified? We end up with the sort of debacle that's been happening over the last 6 months.
Transparency, in my nomenclature, does not simply apply to the pedantic demands by wounded civilians that the corporations open their books, share the emails of their CEOs and allow us to see what they were thinking. I present, instead, the idea that risk itself has an opacity -- a quality that requires us to ensure that what we know is everything necessary to be known. You cannot work for your own self interest if you do not understand what that self interest is. In the old saying, if you can't see the sucker at the poker table, it's you.
Consider the example of the driver who does not know the bridge is out. He is driving along, safely at the speed limit, when his wife calls and informs him that she is going into labor and he should race home so he can be with her as the baby is born. In his mind, it is suddenly in his best interest to get home quickly, so he makes the choice to accelerate -- thus giving himself no opportunity to respond to the missing bridge in time and soon he's swimming to the far side, hoping to call his wife from a soggy cellphone.
Risk cannot be completely removed, and as he accelerates, the driver increases the possibility of that risk -- but he is oblivious to that relationship -- he has driven on this road a thousand times, he is a careful driver -- and while yes, driving faster is a higher risk, it's a calculated risk he is willing to take.
So, the question becomes -- how does one make the situation more transparent for him, so that he can better recognize the choices he is making and truly make decisions in his own best interest? Such a question becomes the focus of regulators -- the point of the exercise -- and that opacity is their job to conquer.
There are 5 places that the opacity against self interest can originate. The first and most likely unavoidable is random chance. We cannot rule out random chance - it will always be the Scepter of God -- wielded at his Will and impervious to our attempts to control it.
The second most important one is our own ignorance. If we do not understand what we are doing, we are that driver blindfolded or refusing to read the signs by the side of the road. There will always be lunatic drivers out there -- call them day traders and gambling speculators -- but for the most part, if we can generate a better and simpler methodology for enabling ourselves to see clearly -- but also to understand the details.
If our driver sees a sign in Chinese, or is illiterate -- what will he do? He will act in perceived but inaccurate self-interest, eventually hurting us all in the process.
The third source of danger is the ignorance of others. That also would be remedied by the same things that would save us. Others, presumably working in their own best interests, may advise us to our own detriment. The man's wife told him to move quickly -- she was also ignorant of the bridge.
The fourth source of confusion is the intentional act of others but not directly intended -- there is the drunk driver who drove over the sign in a stupor -- didn't know what that bang was, and drove on. That driver did something to confound us, but didn't know it. That's the largest group of people who interfere with the transparency of the invisible hand.
Finally -- for the sake of this post -- the fifth source of confusion is the intentionally evil person. Sadly, many people are equating "getting over on the next guy" with self interest -- which is foolish. If you make the world blind so you can be the one-eyed king -- you will surely starve.
So -- the question of my study becomes ... how to control the transparency -- and how to know when you are truly seeing a transparent situation, and not just a mirage?
]]>I've spent the most money I've ever spent in one day on iTunes because of Genius.
I'm loving the music variety and the music extension ... it's great.
Ok ... back to 9/11 -- thanks Osama, you're still a sad little man who doesn't know God at all.
Well, that's done.
Now, back to my rambling ... I have to ramble tonight -- I'm tired but not enough to fall asleep yet -- I'm gelling on this music, thinking about writing and just stretching my thoughts and getting limber here again.
I wrote a little during the day today -- that was good ... got a few facts down, raw stuff that I'll have to edit the heck out of later -- but good stuff all the same.
Ok -- random phrases:
Blue skies at dawn don't exist
A cut doesn't have to be bad
Snowflakes just want to be the same
Birds don't ever know the taste of candy
Bugs have no concerns about the disappearing rainforest -- the world is still a jungle for them
Dogs love people, who do we love like that?
Candy is an interesting topic -- who created it anyway? Was it made as a luxury or as a way to placate children? Are all luxuries just ways to placate the children inside of us? If not, why do luxuries exist?
I think the Mountain Goats are a great band.
If you look into your own eyes on a day that's happy, you never stop to watch your own expression ... you're too busy being happy. But on the days when you're dark, you see so far into the emptiness that you wonder why you even need a mirror anyway.
Today, I'm ignoring my mirrors.
If a lover gives you a chalice, don't hesitate -- it bruises the grape.
There is more hay on the planet than people, there are more insects than hay, there are more molecules of air than insects, and if you took all that and expanded each one to the size of the solar system -- you'd still be nowhere near the size of God's mind -- or the universe for that matter.
Love isn't about flowers -- it's about the muscle, bone, and sinew that keep two people living together at the side of a river with nothing but a cloth to cover them and a bucket to carry water. Love isn't about doves, it's about pain, consumed gratefully so others won't. Love isn't about chocolates, it's about tearing down this wall forever ... the one that divides everybody from everybody.
Ok -- I'm done rambling into my open mike ... 'night all... God loves you -- don't believe me? Well, whatever is out there caring about you is God ... and if you don't think He's there -- help me tear down this wall.
]]>By noon, I was seasick and tired -- but so what? I just stopped moving.
Kathy and I got to the doctor by 4pm -- I've got Vestibular Neuritis ... not as dramatic as it sounds. The nerve between my ear and brain is inflamed in some way -- so I get dizzy until the inflamation goes away.
Maybe God wants me to sit still and write -- I think so. I'm flailing around with other things -- lost a bunch of money in the market in one swell foop because I tried something I didn't understand ... but again -- so what?
I'm sitting here, music in head, bound to the ground until I get over the ear thing -- which could be days, could be weeks.
Nothing to do but write, and then write some more. I think I'll enjoy it. Or not. Who cares?
Like I have a choice -- gotta do what the man in the sky says -- so write I do.
Meanwhile, the vertigo makes me feel weird -- I'm definitely in a strange brain space. Gonna try to get to the office tomorrow -- that should be amusing.
]]>Today -- an empty day -- I got BBQ and went to the construction site of a friend's house, chatted him up about my old church, networking, and his new house. I dropped water off for testing by a lab. I ministered to a friend in Boston and prayed with him.
I took a call from the office about purchasing FC/SC fiber strands from our vendor, and approved the order.
I installed a new stock management program, read the Wall Street Journal, watched Friday Night Lights online through a piped feed to our flat screen TV, updated my daughter's iPod, bought a new AC detector at Home Depot, got a tea Misto at Starbuck's, played with my friend Pat's dog, watched Raiders of the Lost Ark with my son (to help make sure he skipped the scary parts), had our friend Pat over to dinner, and wrote a background article for a friend that's writing an article for the New York Times.
Then I organized the songs on my iTunes, downloaded a new app that sorts songs automagically, called my semi-estranged brother and talked about the relationship between the Native American nations and the BIA, but I forgot to call my wife's uncle Steve about coming over for dinner.
Finally, I read all my emails (about 20), and wrote this post.
...just another nothing day -- so why don't I feel like I did anything?
]]>Kathy went off to bed.
I'm all alone with this blog again ... so what? I wrote something last night, a starter page for Rat's Nest -- liked it -- handed it off to a few people, one read it and gave me some feedback -- the rest promised to ...
So tonight, I'm blogging to get started -- just kick it off ... get my voice going -- get my thoughts running.
I may have finally gotten to a pattern that can make me write -- I think -- maybe.
The point is that I start with music on headphones, late at night, with the whole world asleep, and just sit down to this thing and chatter -- then, when I'm limber ... I write.
How's that? You get to read my warm up tripe and I get to write what matters to me.
hmmm...
that's about all I've got for the blog -- besides the fact that it's hard to get STARTED writing on this thing -- but at least it publishes. That's good.
I saw some funny stuff on Comedy Central's website about Obama's acceptance speech. He's still my guy -- but I'm a little worried about his financial plans. He wants to strap a lot of financial burden on an economy that's struggling to stay standing right now ... he wants Universal healthcare -- which I think IS critical, but at the same time, mandating that parents MUST insure their children sounds kind of naive to me.
He's also looking to do some things to small businesses that seem myopic to me ... but whatever -- he's still my guy thus far. That's all I've got ... I expect disagreement ... my opinions are my own.
Ok -- I'm off tonight -- can't write much -- put a little here and there ... but there's not much to add -- so I'm gonna go play the Wii... why? Because I can ...
]]>Rat's Nest
Ritual
A Perfect Rainbow Circle and the Meaning of It
Faith
Dog
Empty Water
There are others -- but well, wishes mean everything, right?
It makes me nuts -- all I have to do is develop the habit to sit down and start typing, like this -- and before you know it, I'm writing a book -- but I need (NEED) to publish ... I don't care about writing things down -- I care about other people reading them.
I want to write about children lost on the streets of the world, I want to write about brothers who don't know each other, I want to write about a God who Knows us better than we want to know ourselves -- I want to write about things that don't matter ... because they're the things that matter the most.
Here's a few blabbering phrases that I got the other day...
Sedentary Warriors -- that's a coinage of every white-collar "killer" who goes to work, tears it up for his or her family, and never moves from the chair they work in.
Feather in a Storm -- that's just a nice turn of phrase... it's probably the safest place to be in chaos
So, those titles have to do with real books I have written in my head, but don't want to write because people may not like them. What's THAT about? Why should it matter?
I can tell you ... because there was a time in my life when absolutely nothing that came out of my mouth mattered to anyone -- I was virtually a piece of furniture ... "What will we do with him? Should we put him there, or over here?"
So, with that as a foundation -- how do you get to a place where you live your every day carrying literal (ok ... minor pause ... I'm listening to Duran Duran's "Rio" -- had to chair dance to the refrain :) )
ok... anyway... back to whatever serious thing I was saying... oh right -- everything that comes out of my mouth carries literal weight for other people's emotions ... if I put someone down, it could be someone who works for me, or someone who thinks I'm pretty smart, or someone I used to pastor, or someone who looks up to me, or someone who relies on me, or someone who is checking in with me to get his or her life back on track ...
Well, then don't put people down. Duh. But what about the perceived slight? What about the one that they're thinking when I'm doing something else? How do I navigate that? Well, then I have to be ready to (...her name is Rio and she dances on the saaaand...) think about what people might be thinking about what I'm saying and be ready not to say it (!)
Welcome to my world. That's on a good day. Then there are the days where I blow out -- I just can't take the pressure anymore, and I just pop -- I let everyone around me know that they suck because they're not reading my mind as much as I'm trying to read theirs -- and you know what? Then I get put in the "crazy angry" box -- and everybody stops listening.
Soooo... now what? Write? Right.